Abuja Journal of Agriculture and Environment (AJAE)

ECONOMIC EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE PRODUCTION: THE ARDL APPROACH
Author(s): Adeagbo B. A.
Volume/Issue: Volume 1 , Issue 2 (2021)

ABSTRACT:

The study examined economic effects of climate change on rice production: The ARDL approach. The study used secondary data. The trends of the climatic variables (especially rainfall) were significant on the yields of crops, Rice. Crops were selected based on crops farmers grow predominantly in the area and by extension planted during excessive rainfall (flooding). This excessive rainfall led to spikes (a sharp rise in rainfall followed by a sharp decline). It was observed that the crop yields responded to the spikes which resulted in lower yields in such years, and the effect of the spikes were felt on yields of these crops one or two more years after. The unit root and diagnostic tests were conducted on the time-series variables. The empirical results showed the ARDL Co-integration test results as having the adjusted R2 of Rice (0.709) which had significant effects on yields of these various crops. Based on these findings, it is therefore recommended that climatic variability awareness campaign with science–based data and combinations of rice yields’ information should be the beginning for policy making.

KEYWORDS:

Climate change, rice production, ARDL